Update 2018-09-03: As by Aengenheyster et al. 2018, we’re now at “⚀ or ⚁” (1 or 2): https://www.draketo.de/english/politics/roll-a-die → »However, reaching the 1.5 K target appears unlikely as MM would be required to start in 2018 for a probability of 67%.«