1. It's always much easier to smell someone else's bullshit than your own.
2. On average, you will tend pick the explanation that strokes your own ego and places the blame on others.
3. Over time, you will therefore weave a dense and complex web of self-deception around yourself.
4. Knowing about the above does not make you able to compensate for it.
5. However, a blunt but honest friend should be able to burst your bubble with minimal effort. Talk to your friends.