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@Othinus @hakui There's increasing amounts of evidence that the Chinese knew about it and had a few dozen cases by late November and early December, tried a solid month and a half to cover it up, and only started publishing numbers in mid-January. The near two-month quiet and time lag would explain the frankly unbelievable rumored numbers like 20 million dead, which is what you'd expect from an outbreak starting late November on an aging population with no sense of hygiene, disgusting habits, and living in a smoggy shithole.
Oddly enough, from my preliminary data analysis, it looks like there's a bizarre and unusual time lag with countries who got their first cases in January or early February. Generally, there's a slow increase in those countries, taking about 4-6 weeks to go from 1 to 100 confirmed infected. Somewhere around mid-February to late February, when the total cases from these selected countries reaches about 500, suddenly the number of infected in every country tends to accelerate. By March, you get countries like Canada or Austria or Belgium going from 10 to 100 cases within the space of a week, which seems to be the natural progression in countries that report these statistics. The only exceptions are South Korea, Singapore, and Japan, who are experiencing a much more gradual and very weakly exponential trend with no whistleblowers saying the numbers are bullshit.
So this really leaves me with two possible conclusions:
1. Countries have been actively hiding the numbers since before March in order to give themselves just a few more weeks of panic-free preparation before blowing the lid on the numbers mid-March, which ultimately makes the disease look more infectious than it actually is, since they're trying to catch up to the real numbers gradually. Either way, there's way more people infected than there actually are, and quarantine measures won't do much other than collapse the global economy since there's already so many infected people.
Or:
2. Coronachan is infectious but has a huge reservoir of asymptomatic or weak-symptom carriers that went mostly unnoticed until after the point of no return sometime mid-March when even quarantines wouldn't do much to prevent its spread. Around here, deaths become hard to ignore, and unless wide-ranging and constant testing is done, the true numbers of infected become nigh-impossible to ascertain due to collapsing healthcare systems. Thus, this makes the disease look less infectious but more deadly than it actually is. In any case, quarantine measures won't do much other than collapse the global economy since there's already so many infected people.
My money is on the latter. Based on extrapolation upon that assumption, and the rough trend of most countries whose infection numbers are roughly increasing by 10^(0.083x) where x is the day since first official infection: The real numbers of infected worldwide at the moment, outside of China, is probably closer to 4-5 million, not 400-500k. This actually lines up closely with the death numbers, whose trends are harder to hide, yet disparate relative to the increasingly erratic infection detection numbers. This gives a death rate of about 0.4% instead of 4%.
It also doesn't help that some countries are hiding, downplaying, or outright refusing to publish recovery numbers whilst simultaneously screaming about the death numbers and then holding up positive infection tests as 100% accurate. It screams of a controlled narrative.
(TL note: Day 1 is January 14.)
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@Othinus @hakui @kfist
>1
>2
Or a mix of both.