@simsa04 Astute observation. I don't see a lot of "Russian fragmentation will happen regardless of the war's outcome" discussions. People seem to reserve that consequence for a clear Russian defeat, and as you point out, a defeat is not necessary for the state to fragment.

One thing the rulers of such statelets (subpartitions of #Russia) will have observed is how #Ukraine giving up nukes made it susceptible to invasion by its neighbor. So I would expect those leaders to be exceptionally resistant to nuclear non-proliferation efforts.