Conversation

Notices

1. lnxw48a1 (lnxw48a1@nu.federati.net)'s status on Sunday, 19-Mar-2023 11:29:34 EDT lnxw48a1
   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64986744 [www bbc co uk]
   
   #Turkiye leader Erdogan signals approval of #Finland joining #NATO ... still hesitant on #Sweden's application
   
   After the fall of the USSR, I was in favor of abolishing NATO. Frankly, I was too idealistic. I imagined Europe becoming a sort of demilitarized zone but without conflicting armies on each side of said zone. But clearly, I was wrong.
   
   People grumble about additional countries joining, and I say that those countries must have felt the danger growing. They could have steered a course that did not put them in union with either the "Western nations" nor the "former Soviet bloc" ... but instead, many sought to join the European Union ... an imperfect democracy, but still more democratic than what they saw on their Eastern borders. And even the EU, a non-military nation of nations, wasn't always enough.
   
   So when #Poland and #Slovakia, both former Eastern Bloc / CENTO members, joined NATO, I don't see it as them being under the sway of Washington and Brussels, but them seeing something menacing to the East of them and wanting to join with a force large enough to meet and exceed that menace's force.
   
   That's also why #Ukraine (which *twice* forced out governments because their leaders wanted to remain in #Russia's orbit) also applied to join both the #European_Union and #NATO ... despite NATO's clear intention never to admit them to its membership. So when Finland and Sweden finally decided that the threat of invasion was greater than their longstanding neutral stances could overcome, they too applied to join NATO.
   
   Not because they want to lengthen the war, but because they clearly see that war is coming their way whether they want it or not, and that they need to prepare for it. And I think this is something anti-war folks need to understand. You're too late to stop the war. The war is here and Mr Putin and his cronies intend to expand it until people in Berlin and Paris have to either fight or beg for mercy. He's already trying to find excuses to engulf #Moldova in the fighting.
   
   Whether Russia's leaders are motivated by empire or paranoia, they're looking to expand the war to other nations, not to end it. And thus, any negotiated settlement that doesn't flow from kicking their forces entirely out of Ukraine will be a temporary pause while they rebuild their forces and try to integrate what they've learned from the current war.
   1. lnxw48a1 (lnxw48a1@nu.federati.net)'s status on Sunday, 19-Mar-2023 11:30:45 EDT lnxw48a1

      in reply to
      I thought I had posted this link and my comments at least a day ago, but I didn't see it in my history.
   2. simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Sunday, 19-Mar-2023 12:26:22 EDT simsa04

      in reply to
      > I imagined Europe becoming a sort of demilitarized zone but without conflicting armies on each side of said zone.
      
      This is a common misconception. The Treaty of Lisbon (2007) introduced a strong mutual defence obligation of all members of the EU into the Treaty of the European Union (Article 42(7)).
      
      That was arguably too late for the Eastern European countries who joined earlier, but not for aspiring new candidates like Ukraine. (Perhaps one reason why Zelensky put aside NATO membership for now and insisted on a speedy admission to the EU.)
      
      > ... despite NATO's clear intention never to admit them to its membership.
      
      At the NATO summit in Bucharest 2008 Germany and France vetoed membership of Ukraine and Georgia against the insistence of the U.S. on a clear timetable for negotiations and speedy admission. Instead, both countries achieved a watered-down communiqué that vaguely granted both Ukraine and Georgia admission in some distant future. The reason, obviously, was to not rattle Russia. (And perhaps Germany and France saw themselves vindicated when in 2009, after the end of START 1, Russia declared the Budapest Memorandum to still be valid.)
      
      > So when Finland and Sweden finally decided that the threat of invasion was greater than their longstanding neutral stances could overcome, they too applied to join NATO.
      
      Both Finland and Sweden are members of the EU but perhaps don't put much trust in a mutual defence alliance without NATO and U.S. participation.
   3. Bob Jonkman (bobjonkman@gs.jonkman.ca)'s status on Sunday, 19-Mar-2023 16:00:33 EDT Bob Jonkman

      in reply to
      A very thoughtful analysis. I've been on the side of "peace from both sides", but I can see the progression that you lay out.